SpaceX Share Targets Surge to $500 as Revenue Soars 161% to $14.6 Billion
Investors are re-evaluating the space and AI firm after third-quarter earnings exceeded forecasts, leading to a widespread upward revision of stock valuations.
By Malcolm Davis ·
Retail investors holding SpaceX stock saw their potential gains redefined on Tuesday as Wall Street analysts sharply increased price targets following the company’s release of third-quarter 2026 financial results. The share price, which closed at $147.79 on Monday, October 20, rose approximately 8 percent in early premarket trading on Tuesday, October 21, as the market absorbed the stronger-than-expected figures and the subsequent wave of bullish revisions from major investment firms.
The core of the bullish reaction stems from a dramatic expansion in the company's top line. SpaceX reported total revenue of $14.6 billion for the quarter, a 161 percent year-over-year increase that significantly outpaced consensus estimates of approximately $12.7 billion. The company also transitioned from a net loss in the prior year to a net profit of $4.4 billion, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $8.8 billion. These metrics suggest a fundamental shift in the company’s financial trajectory, moving it into a territory of robust profitability.
A primary driver of this financial leap is the Super Intelligence division, which generated roughly $7.6 billion in revenue. This segment became the largest contributor to the company's income, growing nearly 830 percent year-over-year. The Connectivity segment, led by Starlink, also performed strongly, delivering $5.2 billion in revenue. Consumer demand remains high, with the Starlink subscriber base expanding to 13.6 million users, supported by strong enterprise momentum and strategic pricing adjustments.
Forward-looking guidance provided during the earnings call further fueled investor confidence. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen outlined projected first-quarter 2027 revenue between $33 billion and $37 billion, a figure substantially higher than the roughly $22 billion analysts had previously modeled. To support this growth, management announced plans for fourth-quarter capital expenditures ranging from $35 billion to $40 billion, primarily focused on AI compute infrastructure at sites in Memphis and Southaven.
The scale of these investments is designed to meet intense market demand. Management aims to reach 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by the end of 2026, with pathways to exceed 13 gigawatts by the end of 2027. Musk cited relentless demand from hyperscalers and other customers, noting that current compute pricing supports payback periods of less than a year, potentially as short as six months. This rapid return on investment has been a key factor in analysts' reassessment of the company's long-term earnings power.
JPMorgan led the pack of revised valuations, more than doubling its price target to $500 from $240 while maintaining an Overweight rating. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $345 from $246, also with an Overweight stance. Other major firms followed suit: Barclays lifted its target to $300 from $254, and Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target. Wells Fargo increased its outlook to $274 from $214, while Clear Street moved its target to $248 from $217.
Additional firms adjusted their models upward in response to the earnings report. Citi increased its target to $240 from $200, UBS moved its projection to $230 from $210, and TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200. All of these firms maintained positive ratings, such as Buy or Overweight, reflecting a broad consensus that the company's recent performance signals sustained long-term growth.
Beyond the financial figures, the earnings call highlighted several strategic milestones that underpin the company's value proposition. These include recent orbital successes for Starship and the deployment of V3 satellites. Management also discussed rapid adoption of the Grok Bot, spectrum expansion plans, and the formation of special committees to explore a possible combination with Tesla. While elevated spending remains a point of focus for some observers, the average analyst price target has moved higher, reflecting greater conviction in SpaceX’s trajectory across its launch, connectivity, and artificial intelligence businesses.
Source: Teslarati
